977
FXUS65 KGJT 030001
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
601 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WINDS CAPABLE OF
GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- WITH RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED,
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREATS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL LAST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
EARLIER THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD CUMULI DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN, AND MANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA. AS CELLS TAP INTO THE STEADILY INCREASING MOISTURE,
EXPECT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DOES REMAIN WEAK GIVEN OUR POSITION UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE THOUGH. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE LIFESPAN
OF TODAY'S STORMS AND KEEP THEM FAIRLY SLOW-MOVING, SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. BEYOND THIS, WHILE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY, THE 18Z SOUNDING IS HINTING AT AN
ENVIRONMENT NOTICEABLY LACKING IN INSTABILITY. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS YESTERDAY DID ANTICIPATE A DIP IN CAPE TODAY, BUT WE ARE EVEN
FALLING SHORT OF THOSE ESTIMATES. THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO COOLING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER, AND SOME WARMING IN
THE MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. POP'S ARE DOWN AS A RESULT, THOUGH
ISOLATED, STRONGER CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE POTENT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS PWAT'S
QUICKLY RISE TO 180-210% OF NORMAL. THIS COMES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND RESULTANT
BENEFICIAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. WE'LL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF
MOISTURE MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTUALLY THREATENS TO INHIBIT
THE STORM SETUP TOMORROW SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE MORNING
THANKS TO THE ADDED MOISTURE, WHICH IS EXPECTED AS OF THIS MOMENT.
WHILE THIS WON'T CHANGE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN, IT COULD CONSIDERABLY ALTER THE ORGANIZATION OF TOMORROW'S
STORMS. A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE EVENT WOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
SHOULD MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, ALBEIT MORE ISOLATED. SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK DURING THE
MORNING THOUGH, A MORE CONVECTIVE EVENT WOULD BECOME MORE PROBABLE,
BUT WITH THE WAY MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
LESS LIKELY SCENARIO. REGARDLESS OF HOW STORMS ARE CHARACTERIZED
TOMORROW, THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL POSE AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER PRONE LOCATIONS. PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ARE UNDER A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK TOMORROW AS A
RESULT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER LEVELS ON FRIDAY AS
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS, THANKS
TO CONSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. OUR BRIEF WET
SPELL/COOL DOWN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
OUTSIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS, WHERE WARM DRY AIR INVADES AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER TOWARDS THREE DIGITS. LEFTOVER
MOISTURE WILL GET REWORKED ON MUCH OF OUR TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON SOIL
SATURATIONS FROM THURSDAY, THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME MORE HYDROLOGY
CONCERNS ON A LOCAL SCALE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE ENJOYING
INDEPENDENCE DAY IN THE WILD, STAYING ABREAST OF LOCAL FORECASTS IS
ADVISED, ESPECIALLY WHERE FLOOD AND LIGHTNING PRONE TERRAIN IS
INVOLVED. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ALL BE WRAPPED UP AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE SATURDAY TO PRODUCE
A MOSTLY HOT AND DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE TERRAIN
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POP UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VARYING DEGREES OF
SUBSIDENCE POSE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER COVERAGE SATURDAY ON THE
TERRAIN. DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF ANYTHING FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE, ASIDE FROM GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THIS SHOULD
FEEL FAMILIAR, AS WE'VE HELD ON TO THIS SAME BASIC REGIME THE PAST
WEEK AHEAD OF THE CURRENT MOISTURE SURGE.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, MODELS ARE BULLISH FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SOME EXTRA-TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO BUBBLE
UNDER THE HIGH FROM THE SOUTH. THIS RETURNS NON-ZERO AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSH WELL
ABOVE 100 EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS. ELSEWHERE, WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 7-10 DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGY
DURING THIS WARM UP. LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH WILL KEEP CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER THRESHOLDS, BUT HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARISE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POTENTIAL DRY
LIGHTNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
TODAY'S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MOST IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
AFTER 02Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
BUT TAF SITE IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO RETURN UNTIL
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AFTER 12Z PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EASTERN UTAH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER 18Z
IMPACTS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS INCLUDE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, LOWERED
CEILINGS, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND LIGHTNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page