631
FXUS65 KGJT 201747
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1147 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
THE WORK WEEK AROUND THE REGION.
- FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT FOR BURN SCARS AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.
- SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO EBB AND FLOW AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEST TEXAS HIGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
UP INTO EASTERN UTAH, COLORADO AND FARTHER EAST INTO KANSAS, MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO, DRIER AIR OFF THE PACIFIC
HAS MIXED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BREAK UP/REDUCE THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM MEXICO RESULTING IN EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO SEEING A REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
I.E., ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS AND MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. OF INTEREST
IS AN MCC THAT HAS MOVED UP FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CORTEZ INTO
THE NORTHERN SONORAN DESERT ALONG THE SOUTHERN US BORDER OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. THIS MAY BE A FEATURE TO WATCH FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MOST MODELS DON'T SEEM TO BE PAYING ATTENTION TO THIS, BUT THE NAM
AND HRRR ARE PULLING THIS NORTH INTO EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO MONDAY MORNING WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE FLOW IS TOO WEAK TO SAY FOR SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS MINOR
VARIATIONS CAN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE WHERE THIS GOES, E.G., AN
ALTERNATIVE FROM THE SYNOPTIC MODELS PUSHES THIS MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS
THE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASES SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. BUT THEN, LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, THIS
MOISTURE COULD PLOW RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. WATCH
FOR UPDATES ON THIS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY.
SO, FOR TODAY GIVEN ALL THE DEFINITE MAYBES ABOVE, LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
FORMING ON THE TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST SUCH AS ON THE
UNCOMPAHGRE, GRAND MESA, FLAT TOPS, TAVAPUTS AND UINTAS. EVEN THE
ABAJO AND LA SALS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF ACTION TODAY. THEN OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE TERRAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS ALONG THE DIVIDE AND IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS KEEPS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THERE AREN'T ANY STRONG SIGNALS FOR NOTABLE MOISTURE PUSHES THIS
WEEK, BUT THE SURFACE HIGH SEEMS TO PULL IN ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG
THE DIVIDE TO KEEP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE EC ENS IS NOTABLY DRIER COMPARED
TO THE OTHER GLOBAL ENSEMBLES WITH PWATS 50% OF NORMAL MOVING IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AT TIMES. OTHERWISE,
ANTICIPATE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THEN DECAY. SOME GUSTY OUTFLOWS FROM
40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. INCLUDED
TEMPO TSRA CONDITIONS FOR KRIL, KEGE, KASE, KMTJ, KTEX, KGUC
AND VCSH AT KDRO. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, WITH A FEW CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INVADE AT TAIL END OF THIS
PERIOD WITH A NON ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY IT. NOT EXPECTING BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS WITH TOMORROW
MORNING CLOUD COVER.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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