444
FXUS65 KGJT 202139
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
EACH DAY.
- A WARMER, DRIER AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN OUR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN RAMPS BACK
UP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH PWATS RISING TO 120-140% OF
NORMAL. THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV LOOKS TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT
ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER TOMORROW MORNING TO SUPPORT A
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE CAMS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE NOW, AS ARE THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES, SO WE HAVE
INCREASED THE SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN OUR
FORECAST. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE
A LOT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE THROUGH, BUT A FEW
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO SUPPORT FORM SOME WEAK POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION.
MORNING SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE AS MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY, BUT
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER
STORMS.
NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TONIGHT'S LOWS A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN WE'VE SEE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON THE FLIP
SIDE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER
TOMORROW FOR THE SAME REASON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OFFERS LITTLE DEVIATION FROM THE STATUS
QUO ON TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO DELIVER
ON PWAT'S IN EXCESS OF 30 PERCENT OVER NORMAL HERE ON THE WEST
SLOPE. THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ON AREA TERRAIN FEATURES. AREA TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS VALLEYS HEAT UP AHEAD OF AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY, A WAVE WORKING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER LOOKS TO CHIP AWAY AT THE BIG HIGH COOKING MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ASSUMING ALL GOES ACCORDING TO THE MODEL,
MOISTURE SUPPLIES GET SHUNTED EAST AND WE GET LEFT WITH REMNANT
MOISTURE THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
CLOSER TO THE DIVIDE, BUT THIS FORECASTER LEANS IN TO A MORE
EXPANSIVE TERRAIN SHOWER SOLUTION THURSDAY, GIVEN THE TRACK
RECORD OF A LAG IN MOISTURE GETTING SCRUBBED FROM THE QUEUE.
THIS SHOULD ALSO INTRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TICKING UPWARD TOO, AS WE RETURN BACK
TO A HOTTER, DRIER REGIME FRIDAY AND BEYOND. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS, BUT IT SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE TO RULE OUT SOME FIRE WEATHER COMING BACK INTO THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THEN DECAY. SOME GUSTY OUTFLOWS FROM
40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. INCLUDED
TEMPO TSRA CONDITIONS FOR KRIL, KEGE, KASE, KMTJ, KTEX, KGUC
AND VCSH AT KDRO. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, WITH A FEW CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INVADE AT TAIL END OF THIS
PERIOD WITH A NON ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY IT. NOT EXPECTING BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS WITH TOMORROW
MORNING CLOUD COVER.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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