915
FXUS65 KGJT 212201
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
401 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEK,
WITH WETTING RAINS AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE.
- A WARMER, DRIER AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOW ELEVATION
DESERT VALLEYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY WEEK'S END.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
THE RESIDENT MONSOONAL PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION.
GENEROUS STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING STALLED STORM
INITIATION A BIT TODAY, BUT DAYTIME MIXING AND SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER HAVE HELPED GET THINGS GOING ACROSS THE SAN JUANS
AND SOME OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STORMS ARE PRODUCING A FEW
OUTFLOWS IN THE 45 MPH RANGE TOO. THE MID-DAY SOUNDING HERE AT
GRAND JUNCTION REGISTERED A HIKE IN PWAT'S, BUT A MID LEVEL CAP
IS CLEARLY PRODUCING SOME RESISTANCE TO CONVECTION. STORMS WILL
TRAIL OFF AGAIN AROUND DARK TONIGHT. A DIGGING TROUGH OUT WEST,
WILL TIGHTEN THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT, THEREBY CONTINUING A
STEADY SUPPLY OF MOISTURE ALONG THE WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL
PLUME. LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY POSE
SOME DELAY IN STORM INITIATION TUESDAY TOO. HOWEVER, A LITTLE
SUNSHINE WILL GO A LONG WAY AND SEND US ANOTHER ROUND OF TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN LINE WITH
TODAY'S AS WE HOLD ON TO A RATHER STAGNANT ISOHEIGHTS PATTERN
TUESDAY. DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY ABET GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AGAIN. QUIET OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS
MOISTURE EBBS AND FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION, COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL SHIFT BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY. THE BIGGEST SHIFT IN
MOISTURE COMES LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN DRY AIR IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY PICK BACK UP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,
ALTHOUGH WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO EXCEED RED FLAG THRESHOLDS ANYTIME
THIS WEEK. DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUR BIGGER CONCERN. GRADUAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN, BUT WE
REMAIN IN THE SEASONABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL AT TIMES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WEAK WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. SOME SPOTTY RAINSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAYBE A
PASSING THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE JUST NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE -TSRA ON STATION THOUGH DID
INCLUDE PROB30 FOR A FEW TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE BUT DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
PRECIP, VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE. A FEW AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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