714
FXUS65 KGJT 221139
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
539 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEK,
WITH WETTING RAINS AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE.
- A WARMER, DRIER AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOW ELEVATION
DESERT VALLEYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY WEEK'S END.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING, MOST LIKELY DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE DENOTED
BY A VORTICITY LOBE AND WEAK JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THESE SHOWERS DID NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND
IN SOME AREAS WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF 10 TO 20 MPH. A
BOUNDARY IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
DIVIDE BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO GUSTY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS IT SEEMS ELEVATED. A TROUGH PUSHING
INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS WELL AS A DRIER LOW
PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOCAL WILL HELP PUSH THIS REMNANT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY FURTHER EAST, USHERING IN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS MORNING
MAY LIMIT THE START OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT APPEARS
LIKE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, FOCUSED MORE ON THE SAN JUANS AND HIGHER TERRAIN UP
THE CENTRAL COLORADO DIVIDE. WHILE SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
COULD SEE WETTING PRECIPITATION, MOST STORMS AGAIN WILL EXHIBIT
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER. CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AS THE SOCAL LOW PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND MOISTURE PLUME FURTHER EAST, CONTINUING TO
USHER IN DRIER AIR ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STAY PRETTY STEADY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AS MOISTURE EBBS AND FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION, COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL SHIFT BUT
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO
DAY. THE BIGGEST SHIFT IN MOISTURE COMES LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN
DRY AIR IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY PICK
BACK UP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO
EXCEED RED FLAG THRESHOLDS ANYTIME THIS WEEK. DRY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OUR BIGGER CONCERN. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN, BUT WE REMAIN IN THE
SEASONABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL AT TIMES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER REMAINING BY DAY BREAK. LIGHT WETTING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST, WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND UP THE CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. PROB30 GROUPS FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS INCLUDED FOR KTEX, KDRO, KASE, KEGE AND KGUC
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. OTHERWISE, BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS 20
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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