265
FXUS65 KGJT 222322
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEK
WITH MANY STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. WETTING RAINS
WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
- A WARMER, DRIER AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOW ELEVATION
DESERT VALLEYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
OUR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO USHER MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHICH HAS INITIATED ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CO
MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WITH THE SAME FOOTPRINT AS OUR CURRENT CONVECTION,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ON TAP TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE NORTH COMPARED TO
WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO BETTER UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING IN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WE'LL STILL SEE SOME INITIATION OVER THE
SOUTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS, BUT WE'LL SEE AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS AND CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY BE HARDER TO ACHIEVE ALONG THE PARK RANGE DUE TO
THE SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE
FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND A LITTLE JET SUPPORT, THE
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE EASTERN
UINTA MOUNTAINS ARE MORE OF A SLAM DUNK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WE ARE SEEING A SIMILAR LOW BIAS IN THE
MODELS THERE AS WELL. PER USUAL, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AT TIMES. WITH
BETTER SHEAR, UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR
NORTHEAST UTAH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
LOW PRESSURE COMING ASHORE OUT WEST WILL SEND A SERIES OF
HEIGHT FALLS, THEREBY BREAKING DOWN THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BUMP THE MOISTURE TRACK OUT OF THE WAY AND DRY THINGS OUT HERE
ON THE WEST SLOPE. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RETAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AREA
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ANOTHER DAY. THESE
TRANSITION DAYS WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE PRODUCTIVE,
DESPITE THE MODEL'S ATTEMPTS TO DRY US OUT. A DIGGING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEND DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
AND FAVOR THE UINTAS, THE DIVIDE, AND ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SPIKE BACK UP FOR OUR DESERT VALLEYS
AND LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
PICTURE. SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER WITH MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTION WORKING ON REMNANT MOISTURE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERRAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A
CONCERN GIVEN THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS BENEATH A JET STREAK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHT RISES SUNDAY AND BEYOND PUSH A MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS BACK ACROSS THE CWA,
POTENTIALLY RETURNING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO THE REGION
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS REMAINS A TENTATIVE SOLUTION, YET
ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY FAVORING THIS
REGIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND
START THE NEW WORK WEEK, BUT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD SEND HIGH FORECASTS BACK LOWER. PLENTY OF TIME TO
GET SQUARED AWAY ON A SOLUTION THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED, STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA, FAVORING
LOCATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE. THIS INCLUDES KASE, KEGE, AND KGUC.
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING AS THEY
PASS OVER ANY TERMINALS. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER AND SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MID AND HIGH LEVEL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN SKIES WILL PERSIST, GRADUALLY CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERS, WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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