960
FXUS65 KGJT 230858
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
258 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEK
WITH MANY STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WETTING RAINS WILL BECOME
LESS LIKELY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
- A WARMER, DRIER AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOW ELEVATION
DESERT VALLEYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2025
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS STILL OUT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO AS A MESO LOW OVER TEXAS IS STUCK UNDERNEATH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS, ALLOWING OUR AREA TO STILL BE
UNDERNEATH THE MOISTURE PLUME. WE ARE NOT SEEING AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS LAST NIGHT BUT A FEW LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CORRIDOR. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WILL HELP FINALLY BREAK DOWN THE HIGH
AND LIFT THE MESO LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WE WILL ALSO
SEE A BIT BETTER FORCING ACROSS THE NORTH AS JET SUPPORT SETS UP
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. CAPE REMAINS
SUFFICIENT AROUND 200 TO 400 J/KG FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH, WITH THE BETTER FORCING
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH, THE EASTERN UINTAS COULD SEE SOME STORMS
TODAY AS WELL. 20 TO 30 KTS OF SHEAR EXISTS SO SOME STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL, BUT THE CAPE DOES APPEAR
LIMITED. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING THIS
REMNANT MOISTURE AND DOWNPLAYING CONVECTION A BIT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS CAPABLE OF BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY, ENOUGH FORCING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
HIGH FURTHER EAST AND ALLOW A BETTER PATHWAY FOR DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR
STORMS TO BE PRODUCTIVE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF DRY AND
MOIST AIR. ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR LOOKS TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THE STORMS, BUT LESS OF A CHANCE OF
WETTING RAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEND DRY, SOUTHWEST
FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED AND FAVOR THE UINTAS, THE DIVIDE, AND ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SPIKE BACK UP FOR OUR
DESERT VALLEYS AND LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE PICTURE. SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER WITH
MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WORKING ON REMNANT MOISTURE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERRAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS BENEATH A
JET STREAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHT RISES SUNDAY AND BEYOND
PUSH A MORE SUBSIDENT AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS BACK ACROSS THE
CWA, POTENTIALLY RETURNING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS REMAINS A TENTATIVE SOLUTION,
YET ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY FAVORING THIS
REGIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND
START THE NEW WORK WEEK, BUT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD SEND HIGH FORECASTS BACK LOWER. PLENTY OF TIME TO
GET SQUARED AWAY ON A SOLUTION THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2025
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO, WITH CLEARING ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO DIVIDE HIGH TERRAIN. KTEX, KGUC, KASE, AND KEGE STAND
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS WITH STORMS SO INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS AT THESE SITES. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH LOCALLY BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
AFTER SUNSET.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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