467
FXUS65 KGJT 232347
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
547 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TERRAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST OF THE DIVIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKING MORE LIKELY.
- MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ERODING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2025
DRY AIR IS PUSHING ACROSS THE UTAH STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE A WET, SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SOUNDING MID-DAY HERE AT GRAND
JUNCTION, THIS SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF DRY AIR HAS PUSHED MOST
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DIVIDE. TERRAIN FEATURES STRADDLING THE
STATE LINE ARE JUST HOLDING CUMULUS FIELDS. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
NEARLY 10 DEGREES TOO. THIS IS ALL DEVELOPING AS A TROUGH SWINGING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NUDGES HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE DEPARTING HIGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ERODE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD USHER IN SOME COOLER NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF US TONIGHT, AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN LAST NIGHT.
TOMORROW HAS BEEN SHAPING UP TO BE A DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION AS THE
MONSOON PLUME SHIFTS EAST. THE ABRUPT PUSH OF DRY AIR TODAY HAS
RATTLED CONFIDENCE IN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE ON TERRAIN THAT
WON'T GET SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME GUSTY OUTFLOWS BENEATH VIRGA
SHOWERS AND DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS. CLEAR SKIES AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE STATE LINE UP A BIT
THURSDAY, WHILE MOUNTAIN LOCALES WILL HOLD ON TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
OF RECENT DAYS. AS LOWER DEWPOINTS INVADE THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY,
MORNING LOWS WILL TREND DOWN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES EVERYWHERE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND
SLOWLY FILLS BEFORE COMING AN OPEN WAVE BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
LOCATION OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR. AS THIS OCCURS, AN
APPROACHING JET STREAK WILL CAUSE SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO
MATERIALIZE. THIS COMBINATION, ALONG WITH CRITICAL FUELS, MAY
BRING A RETURN TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THESE FINER DETAILS,
HOWEVER. SOME REMNANT MOISTURE MAY ALSO LINGER ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO THERE'S ALSO AN OFF CHANCE (UP TO 20%) AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY FIRE EACH AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT, WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KICK IN UNDER THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE MORE
NORMAL LATE JULY VALUES. TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. FLOW AROUND THESE FEATURES WILL TAP INTO
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY BRING A RETURN TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DISCREPANCIES DO POP
UP BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS FAR AS AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND
THE TIMING BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR SOME
ACTUAL PRECIP TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2025
DRIER AIR IS INVADING FROM THE WEST AND INHIBITING THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS A RESULT.
UNFORTUNATELY SMOKE IS COMING ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR AND CLEARLY
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS. KCNY HAS DROPPED TO MVFR
AS A RESULT OF THE RESTRICTION TO VSBY AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY SPREAD TO OTHER AIRFIELDS IN CO. CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH BUT WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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