351
FXUS65 KGJT 241145
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TERRAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST OF THE DIVIDE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL KEEP SKIES HAZY
TO SMOKEY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND POOR AIR QUALITY.
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKING MORE LIKELY.
- MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ERODING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE REMNANTS
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO ADVECT
INTO EASTERN UTAH AND NOW PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO ALONG THE
UTAH BORDER ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS NOTICEABLE
IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS ON LAST EVENING'S SOUNDING WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S SOUNDING WITH A DROP FROM
0.82 INCHES TO 0.59 INCHES. IMAGINE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER AS A TROUGH OVER THE WEST HELPS PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AND MOISTURE PLUME FURTHER EAST AS DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST REPLACES IT. FEELS LIKE THE HI-RES CAMS AND NBM ARE
CATCHING UP WITH THIS TREND AS THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL KEEP STORMS FIRING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE. THINKING LESS COVERAGE THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND LESS COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY, WHICH WAS
LESS THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. WE WILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY, DRIER AIR SEEMS FULLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS A LARGER PORTION
OF THE AREA THAT AM ONLY ANTICIPATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
THE DIVIDE WITH AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE APPEARING MORE FAVORED
FOR BETTER COVERAGE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS APPEAR THE PRIMARY
CONCERN GIVEN OUR VACATING MOISTURE, BUT A FEW WETTING RAINERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT DOES APPEAR LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS WE
TRANSITION TO A HOTTER AND DRIER REGIME BY THIS WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR MASS, WE ARE SEEING THE
IMPLICATIONS OF THIS HOTTER DRIER REGIME THAT IS TO COME AS
FIRES OUT WEST ARE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE, SUCH AS THE DRAGON
BRAVO FIRE ON THE NORTH RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON IN ARIZONA. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED THIS SMOKE TO TRAVEL THROUGH EASTERN
UTAH INTO THE GRAND VALLEY OF WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SMOKE
CURRENTLY REMAINS TRAPPED. THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL INDICATES THIS
FIRE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN PRODUCING SMOKE TODAY AND ON
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN AREAS OF SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO AT
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND
SLOWLY FILLS BEFORE COMING AN OPEN WAVE BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
LOCATION OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR. AS THIS OCCURS, AN
APPROACHING JET STREAK WILL CAUSE SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO
MATERIALIZE. THIS COMBINATION, ALONG WITH CRITICAL FUELS, MAY
BRING A RETURN TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE HOT, DRY AND WINDY INDEX FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOWS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK
OUT THESE FINER DETAILS, HOWEVER. SOME REMNANT MOISTURE MAY ALSO
LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO THERE'S ALSO AN OFF
CHANCE (UP TO 20%) AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY FIRE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN UNDER THIS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 DEGREES
ABOVE MORE NORMAL LATE JULY VALUES.
TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND
WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. FLOW AROUND
THESE FEATURES WILL TAP INTO SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLY BRING A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DISCREPANCIES DO POP UP BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS FAR AS AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND THE TIMING
BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR SOME ACTUAL
PRECIP TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE AND EASTERN UINTAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SO IS THE
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT A FEW AIRFIELDS, PARTICULARLY
KGJT AND POSSIBLY KCNY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS
EXPECTED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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