449
FXUS65 KGJT 242200
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TERRAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST OF THE DIVIDE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL KEEP SKIES HAZY
TO SMOKEY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND POOR AIR QUALITY.
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY THIS WEEKEND,
CREATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ERODING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY IN THE SAN JUANS AND
ALONG THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER, WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN VIRGA IS
POSSIBLE WITH MANY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. AFTER SUNSET
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN PWAT ANOMALIES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE CWA TOMORROW. CONSEQUENTLY, CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST
OF TOMORROW'S CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH,
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR CWA, PRIMARILY IN THE SAN
JUANS AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. CONSIDERING THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR, THE MAIN CONCERNS FROM TOMORROW'S CONVECTION WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
SMOKE FROM THE DRAGON BRAVO FIRE ON THE NORTH RIM OF THE GRAND
CANYON HAS BEEN IMPACTING OUR AREA, AND APPEARS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMOKE INTO OUR CWA. THE
HRRR SMOKE MODEL SUGGESTS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SMOKE IN OUR
REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY CAUSING
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR AIR QUALITY. DESPITE SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DESERT VALLEYS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONLY
BE LOCALIZED AS WIND GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW THRESHOLDS EXCEPT FOR IN LOCAL AREAS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED WELL TO THE EAST AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN UTAH AND
THE WESTERN SLOPE. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE LOW WILL START
APPROACHING THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS A 65KT JET STREAK AND
WITH DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED, SOME STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH CRITICAL FUELS
STILL IN PLACE, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIKELY. THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED FRIDAY AND
DO NOT WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER, AS THE JET
MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST STARTS TO RETROGRADE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FLOW AROUND THESE
FEATURES WILL TAP INTO SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH THE EC
AND GFS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS POSSIBILITY WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION TUESDAY ONWARDS. AS ALWAYS, THIS FAR OUT SOME
CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL THEN DROP TO NORMAL, OR JUST
BELOW, WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SO DID
INCLUDE VCTS FOR KASE AND KEGE AND PROB30 FOR KTEX AND KGUC.
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, SO COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION, WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND MAY AFFECT VISIBILITIES SOMEWHAT THOUGH, AS OF
NOW, VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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