602
FXUS65 KGJT 260618
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1218 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS, MAYBE A STORM OR TWO, WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL KEEP SKIES HAZY
TO SMOKY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND POOR AIR QUALITY.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND
MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.
- WINDS LIGHTEN UP SOME ON SUNDAY BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO SEVERAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2025
AS EXPECTED, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER THE SAN JUANS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SOME MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, SMOKE FROM THE
DRAGON BRAVO FIRE IN ARIZONA IS BRINGING SOME MINOR VISIBILITY
ISSUES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SMOKE LOOKS TO
LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW, AND POSSIBLY BEYOND, THOUGH HRRR
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS SMOKE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AFFECTING
MORE OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL LAY DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MIXING WHICH WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
THIS OCCURS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER
AIR. ALL THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DESCRIBED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. OUTSIDE OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE WITH THOSE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARM
TEMPERATURES. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAYBE A STORM, WILL
BE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BUT COVERAGE IS
VERY SMALL, IF ANY OCCUR AT ALL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPS DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY
LOW ACROSS THE CWA. IF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN ON SUNDAY, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE SAN JUANS.
ON MONDAY MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, PWAT ANOMALIES WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL
GENERALLY LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ON
TUESDAY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASE WITH THE
ELEVATED MOISTURE. BEYOND TUESDAY ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DISAGREE
ON MOISTURE AMOUNTS, WHICH LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LOOKS LIKE. REGARDLESS, DAILY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE DRY
AND GUSTY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST, BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF AFTERNOON WIND
GUSTS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LESSEN NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE DROPPING
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH LOWER DESERT VALLEYS
OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO, INCLUDING KGJT AND
KCNY WHERE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES TO MVFR BUT
OTHERWISE, WILL STILL REMAIN HAZY TO SMOKEY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS AT MOST SITES. VERY
ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE DIVIDE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NO IMPACTS TO TAF SITES WITH VFR PREVAILING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, DEEPER MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW
15% AND WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FUELS ACROSS THE REGION,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET. FOR THAT REASON,
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE ALL BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN COLORADO. ALSO INCLUDED ZONE 201 AS OVER HALF THE ZONE
ALSO LOOKS TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WINDS
LIGHTEN UP SOME AS THE JET STREAK MOVES NORTHWARD. EVEN SO,
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR
SEVERAL ZONES IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ200>203-205-207-290-292-294.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-290.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ485>487-490-491.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ487-490.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR/GF
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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