148
FNUS75 KGJT 131023
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR OAK FIRE...CO DFPC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
423 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0500 MDT ON AUGUST 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
DISCUSSION
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
SAN JUANS TO THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SENDING GUSTY NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW WINDS TOWARDS THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON (15-25% CHANCE).
OTHERWISE, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A PUSH OF MOISTURE ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN REMAIN VERY LOW.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (23000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MAX HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR (4000 KNOT-FT)
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...5 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 14000 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 14 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...30 PERCENT.
FORECASTER...KATHRYN ABBOTT
REQUESTED BY...LOGAN DAVIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519692.3/GJT
.DELDT 08/13/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
LOGAN.DAVIS@STATE.CO.US,RVEGA@ARCHULETACOUNTY.ORG,AARON.YOUNG@WISCONSIN.GOV
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