014
FNUS75 KGJT 141127
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR OAK FIRE...CO DFPC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON AUGUST 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
DISCUSSION
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MOVES IN TODAY AS
MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE REGION. DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER, PROMPTING A RED FLAG WARNING.
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RAMPS UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH MAY MOVE TOWARDS THE FIRE FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (27000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 14600 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 4-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR (5000 KNOT-FT)
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...5 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10700 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 11 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...55 PERCENT.
FORECASTER...KATHRYN ABBOTT
REQUESTED BY...LOGAN DAVIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519692.5/GJT
.DELDT 08/14/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RVEGA@ARCHULETACOUNTY.ORG,KMACHT@PAGOSAFIRE.COM,LOGAN.DAVIS@STATE.CO.US
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