657
FXUS65 KGJT 271016
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
416 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY.
- THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
BURN SCARS AND FLOOD PRONE LOCALES WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT RAINS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY.
- A DRIER PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
AS EXPECTED, LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HANGS ALONG THE STATE LINE THIS MORNING. AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS CHIPPING AWAY AT CEILINGS IN
EASTERN UTAH, WHERE ANY SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL MAKE QUICK WORK
OF CONVERTING THE WET SURFACE AIR MASS INTO SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN WELL INTO THE 50'S AND NEAR 60 DEGREES AROUND THE
REGION. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
CONCERN IN SENSITIVE AREAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE WE SAW WETTING RAINS
TUESDAY. SATURATED SOILS WILL RESPOND TO RUNOFF MUCH QUICKER TODAY.
HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES DUE TO FLOODING BEING MORE LOCALIZED
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS UNCHANGED, SO SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
CONSISTENT WITH TUESDAY'S STORM MOTIONS. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
HIGHLIGHTING MORE TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL ALSO HINGE ON CLOUD COVER. WET VALLEYS WILL BE RECEPTIVE
TO STORMS MOVING OFF TERRAIN, PRODUCING ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINS
FOR OUR RAIN STARVED LOCALES.
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO TURN
DOWN THE SPIGOT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONVERT TO STRATIFORM,
CURBING ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS EVENING AS WELL. CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS COULD ALLOW SOME FOG FORMATION
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL DOWN THERE. POSITIONING OF THE HIGH
CHANGES VERY LITTLE THURSDAY. MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL REMAIN THE KEY
VARIABLE AS WE CONVERT TO WORKING OVER REMNANT SURFACE MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN. THERE'S NO REASON TO ABANDON
PERSISTENCE THURSDAY. BEST TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST, AS SOUTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHICS WILL REMAIN A PRODUCTIVE
FEATURE. THUNDESTORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL, GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STABLE
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOO, THANKS TO HIGH DEWPOINTS, CLOUD COVER,
AND PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
ON THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE SITUATED ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT NOT LIKE WHAT WE ARE SEEING
TODAY. THE MODELS ARE FAVORING THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF AREA,
WHICH IS WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON SATURDAY THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA. WHETHER THIS
WAVE ENHANCES OR INHIBITS CONVECTION WILL COME DOWN TO TIMING. THE
EXACT TRACK IS UNKNOWN BUT IT APPEARS IT COULD BISECT THE CWA RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THAT WAVE IT LOOKS
LIKE A MODEST PUSH OF DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD END THE MONSOON PUSH OR PERHAPS RESULT IN
MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THIS IS ALSO WHEN THE TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERVALS OF BREAKPOINT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, OUTSIDE OF A GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TAPER SOUTH TO NORTH TOMORROW
NIGHT, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL END WITH
CONTINUED THREATS TO VFR FLYING NORTH OF I-70 AND ALONG THE
DIVIDE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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