584
FXUS65 KGJT 281144
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
544 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR BURN SCARS AND FLOOD PRONE LOCALES WITH SATURATED SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINS.
- TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY, BUT RETURN COOLER
FRIDAY.
- A FINAL PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, THEN DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
A WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK WORKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING HAS PRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SPOT CHECK OF AREA
RAIN GAUGES SHOWS NEARLY A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THESE SHOWERS. SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTH OF THE 50 HIGHWAY CORRIDOR. STRATIFORM CLOUD
COVER LINGERS IN THE MOISTURE POOL ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND
INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH CHANCES
TAPERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AS PWAT'S REMAIN 120 TO 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AROUND THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
UP A COUPLE DEGREES, BUT HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY TODAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AROUND DARK,
WITH SOME STRATIFORM RAIN HANGING ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WORKS IN ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS ALONG THE RESIDENT JET STREAK AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
MORNING CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
RESPOND DOWNWARD FRIDAY THANKS TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
THE BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE THE
CATALYST OF A SHIFT BACK TO DRIER WEATHER, AT LEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM MOIST AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO DRIER AND WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY.
ON FRIDAY ONE LAST PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL COME THROUGH BEFORE
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AS THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA'S COAST PASS THROUGH OUR REGION AS A WEAK WAVE ON
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY LINGERING MOISTURE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY DRY AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT POPS IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY LOOK LESS CLEAR IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO
ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES ON MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND DECREASE IN MOISTURE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER IN OUR I-70 TERMINALS AND ALONG
THE DIVIDE THIS MORNING, AS WE REMAIN TOO WET TO ACTUALLY CLEAR
OUT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS. ACTIVITY FAVORS AREAS NORTH OF THE 50 HIGHWAY
CORRIDOR, BUT A FEW TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS WILL SPRING UP IN
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN SOME LOCALES TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
THANKS TO ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED CEILINGS AT TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS
IN SUCCESSIVE TAF PACKAGES TODAY. BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT TERMINALS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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