966
FXUS65 KGJT 282154
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TODAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR BURN SCARS AND FLOOD PRONE LOCALES WITH SATURATED SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINS.
- TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY, BUT RETURN COOLER
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A FINAL PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, THEN DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ONGOING, PRIMARILY
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE CAPE IS THE GREATEST. RAINFALL ESTIMATES
AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TODAY'S STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS WITH TODAY'S STORMS ARE HAIL AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENDING
BY SUNSET. TOMORROW ONE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
PACIFIC. PWATS AROUND 150% OF NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PUSH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
MORE STRATIFORM LIKE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW, BUT MAY BE LIMITED BY
THE MORNING'S CLOUD COVER IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR QUICK ENOUGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT TOMORROW, BEFORE CLIMBING
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
ON SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING
DRY AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE ONLY MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG
THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS, WHICH IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ON
SATURDAY THERE MAY BE SOME MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE SAN JUANS SO
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THERE. ELSEWHERE WILL BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US KEEPING US
IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW, SO NOT MUCH ADVECTION. MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
MAY LINGER AROUND THE SAN JUANS, WHICH WILL KEEP DAILY AFTERNOON
STORM CHANCES GOING. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PERHAPS FILTERS IN MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS IS WHEN WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN
IFR/MVFR WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING. IT COULD LOWER CIG/VIS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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