767
FXUS65 KGJT 122148
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- CONDITIONS DRY OUT ON SUNDAY SO EXPECT LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
OVERALL THIS EVENING WE SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND TO THE
CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY
MIDNIGHT IT BECOMES MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LATE TONIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS OVER UTAH. OVERALL THIS EVENING WE
SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND TO THE CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY MIDNIGHT IT BECOMES MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LATE TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
OVER UTAH AND LOOKS TO PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SO WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
THERE AS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THE WAVE LIFTS OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO. MOISTURE DOES DECREASE AS THE DEEPER PLUME PUSHES EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THE LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN. THE WAVE ITSELF
SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT AS WELL SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. THE MODELS
ALSO SHOW THAT THE JET ALOFT MAY STILL BE OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHEAR. WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.OOKS TO PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SO WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER THERE AS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS. DURING
THE MORNING HOURS THE WAVE LIFTS OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO. MOISTURE DOES DECREASE AS THE DEEPER PLUME
PUSHES EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THE LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN. THE WAVE
ITSELF SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT AS WELL SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THE JET ALOFT MAY STILL BE OVERHEAD,
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHEAR. WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS, BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
ON SUNDAY MORNING THE AXIS OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL LEAD TO A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE REGION, ENDING THE ONGOING RETURN OF THE
MONSOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BE PASSING TO OUR NORTH. AS IT PASSES, IT MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCREASE POPS ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH, MODELS SEEM TO
DISAGREE ON BOTH THE TIMING OF THIS THROUGH PASSAGE, AND HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD SO NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN
TERMS OF QPF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN AFTER THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE. WITH THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE, AND PERIODS OF
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY WHERE PERIODS OF SUN BREAK OUT
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE HEATING. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY CONVECTION, WITH CIGS AND VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT TIMES. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL REDUCE AFTER 06Z WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
LINGERING OVERNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ003-006>014-
017>023.
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027>029.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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