819
FXUS65 KGJT 132237
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
437 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS AFTERNOON'S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SUNSET TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- CONDITIONS DRY OUT TOMORROW, SO EXPECT LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING FROM WHAT WE SAW
EARLIER IN THE DAY AS CAPE DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
AFTER SUNSET CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
ALL BUT OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A LITTLE BIT OF SUPPORT
FROM THE TROUGH PASSAGE REMAINS. EVEN SO, ANY PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED, ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. A PATTERN CHANGE AS RIDGING BUILDS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO START PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
THE MOST ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE
POPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS SUPPORT
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH AND JET MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, AND WILL SLOWLY PASS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME
(PWATS AROUND 75-125% OF NORMAL), SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY HELP INCREASE POPS. ELEVATED POPS WILL PRIMARILY BE
ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THIS IS WHERE ANY PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE.
HOWEVER, THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO BEING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL MOISTURE PUSH
LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWER/STORM AND CIGS LOWERED TO ILS BREAKPOINTS
AT TIMES DURING CONVECTION. VFR RETURNS AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ003-006>014-
017>023.
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027>029.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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