809
FXUS65 KGJT 140616
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1216 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY, SO EXPECT LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THEREFORE, ALLOWED THE FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING FROM WHAT WE SAW
EARLIER IN THE DAY AS CAPE DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
AFTER SUNSET CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
ALL BUT OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A LITTLE BIT OF SUPPORT
FROM THE TROUGH PASSAGE REMAINS. EVEN SO, ANY PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED, ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. A PATTERN CHANGE AS RIDGING BUILDS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO START PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
THE MOST ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE
POPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS SUPPORT
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH AND JET MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, AND WILL SLOWLY PASS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME
(PWATS AROUND 75-125% OF NORMAL), SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY HELP INCREASE POPS. ELEVATED POPS WILL PRIMARILY BE
ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THIS IS WHERE ANY PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE.
HOWEVER, THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO BEING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL MOISTURE PUSH
LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SKIES
CLEAR FROM THE WEST AND A MUCH QUIETER DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.
LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE, AFFECTING KHDN, KRIL, KASE AND KEGE THOUGH AS THE LOW
DEPARTS THE REGION BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AS SKIES CLEAR. CONFIDENCE
WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH THOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BREEZY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS
IF ANYTHING DOES FORM, OTHERWISE ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PRECIP FREE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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