671
FXUS65 KGJT 141800
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1200 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTH.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN 5 DEGREES
BELOW AND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMY WEATHER
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. SKIES ARE
CLEARING BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH INTO MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO. SOME LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE AS THIS LOW CENTER
SPINS OVER NE COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY PROVIDING A BREAK FROM THE
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SOME HI-
RES CAMS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS POPPING OVER
THE UINTAS AND NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON, SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. HOWEVER, CHANCES
OF WETTING RAIN ARE VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
TODAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL AS WELL, SO GREAT DAY TO GET OUTSIDE
AND ENJOY THE OUTDOORS AFTER THE LAST FEW DAYS OF STORMY
CONDITIONS.
WHILE THE WESTERN SLOPE WILL BE UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW, A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND TRACK THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. WE
WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
AFTERNOON WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ALSO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND WHILE IT ISN'T AS ABUNDANT
AS WHAT WE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED, IT STILL MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY
WILL SLOWLY PASS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME
(PWATS AROUND 75-125% OF NORMAL), SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY HELP INCREASE POPS. ELEVATED POPS WILL PRIMARILY BE
ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THIS IS WHERE ANY PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE.
HOWEVER, THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO BEING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL MOISTURE PUSH
LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT A FEW TAF
SITES, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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