679
FXUS65 KGJT 141938
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
138 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTH.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN 5 DEGREES
BELOW AND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS LIFTED OUT OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE IS LINGERING MOISTURE. WHILE
THE WESTERN SLOPE WILL BE UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW, A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND TRACK THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. WE WILL FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE AFTERNOON WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY AT TIMES. SOME MOISTURE WILL ALSO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WHILE IT ISN'T AS ABUNDANT AS WHAT WE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED, IT
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
ON TUESDAY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM WYOMING.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REACHES THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE UINTAS. ON WEDNESDAY THE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER NE CO. NOT
SURE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN IT ARRIVES, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WITH IT. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA APPEARS TO BE FAVORED TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
IS WHERE THE FORCING IS THE HIGHEST. ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DO
NOT PRODUCE MUCH QPF ON THE WESTERN SLOPE. ALTHOUGH THINGS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING WETTER SO PERHAPS QPF MAY INCREASE DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL MOISTURE PUSH
LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT A FEW TAF
SITES, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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