191
FXUS65 KGJT 151118
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
518 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH. NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR BEST COVERAGE WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN 5 DEGREES
BELOW AND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IN
EXTENT AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
ALL IS QUIET ON THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN UINTAS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW THAT WILL BE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
A 60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND
WE WILL BEGIN FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF SAID JET ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR AT TIMES. SOME MOISTURE
ALSO ADVECTS ACROSS THE NORTH, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
VALLEYS ALONG THE COLORADO-WYOMING BORDER. MOST AREAS ASIDE FROM
THE NORTH LOOK TO REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
WYOMING AND SWINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FROM THE JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA WILL KEEP NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO IN THE
AREA OF BETTER DYNAMIC LIFT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS MORE SCATTERED
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEING FAVORED BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO COULD SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN IN THE VALLEYS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME WITH BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE EASTERN UINTAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO. COOLING WILL BE MOST EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
HIGHS DROP FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 REMAIN NEAR TO ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD PASSING
OVER NE CO. NOT SURE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN IT
ARRIVES, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WITH IT.
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA APPEARS TO BE FAVORED TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHICH IS WHERE THE FORCING IS THE HIGHEST. ON WEDNESDAY,
THE MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH QPF ON THE WESTERN SLOPE.
ALTHOUGH THINGS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER SO PERHAPS QPF MAY
INCREASE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT ON
THURSDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
TO OUR EAST, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
MOISTURE PUSH LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE ABOVE AND BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AFTER 18Z. SOME CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE COLORADO-WYOMING BORDER. NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
TO TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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