037
FXUS65 KGJT 152046
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
246 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTH. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORED FOR BEST COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE IN
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN 5 DEGREES
BELOW AND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IN
EXTENT AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WYOMING AND ASSOCIATED COOL
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WILL KEEP NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO IN THE AREA OF BETTER DYNAMIC LIFT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS MORE SCATTERED WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEING FAVORED BUT
SOME LOWER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO
COULD SEE ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS
HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN UINTAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN COLORADO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
TUESDAY'S TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SAGS FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
HIGH'S VARY ACROSS THE BOARD ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE COLDER TEMPS
NOTED UP NORTH, RUNNING ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MORE ABUNDANT ON THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT A LITTLE TASTE OF FALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DRAGS THE TROUGH'S AXIS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. MILD TEMPS
STICK AROUND THURSDAY, WHILE WE ARE SETTLED UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND, THOUGH, BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. A SOCAL LOW AND
ACTIVE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE DRAPED ACROSS ARIZONA MAY LOFT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, PRECIP PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SAN JUAN'S AND WEST-CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS. HOW
THE CALI LOW IS INGESTED INTO THE PLANETARY WAVE TO ITS NORTH LEAVES
UNCERTAINTY IN OUR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY BUT
CONSENSUS REALIGNS WITH GENERALLY QUIET/DRY WEATHER AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, NAMELY TERRAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS, THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...ERW
AVIATION...TGJT
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