823
FXUS65 KGJT 022108
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
308 PM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE TOMORROW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
HIGH ELEVATION LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
- DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AS ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY OCTOBER HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS ALL
CHANGES SHORTLY, HOWEVER. A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL COME ASHORE LATER TONIGHT AND BY TOMORROW MORNING, A
CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE FORMED AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEVADA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AND AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK
JET STREAK WILL ALSO START MOVING OVERHEAD. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL ALLOW SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, HIGHER AT TIMES, TO
MATERIALIZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE JET STREAK WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LIFT ACROSS THE CWA WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT MIDAFTERNOON ONWARDS.
COVERAGE AND PRECIP CHANCES (20 TO 30%) WILL BEGIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THEN INCREASE
TO THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN CHANCES
INCREASE TO 30 TO 50%. CHANCES ONLY INCREASE FROM HERE ON OUT AS
THE APPROACHING LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL NEED TO MOVE
THROUGH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
ON SATURDAY THE AXIS OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TROUGH WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY, BUT
PWAT ANOMALIES LOOK TO PEAK OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AT AROUND
175-200% OF NORMAL. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, AND AN ABUNDANCE OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH PASSAGE, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. FOR MOST THIS WILL BE
RAIN, BUT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 9KFT. HOWEVER, THESE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SHOULD ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST. STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED
WINDS ALOFT AND A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP
BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE BECOMING
SEASONABLE AGAIN NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THE TROUGH DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
SO, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER, MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED POPS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN WHERE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM SETS UP TO
OUR WEST NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING IMPACTS BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SITES
COULD BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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