704
FXUS65 KGJT 141756
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1156 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
- SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS IN THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUANS AND IN AND AROUND THE PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDESTORMS MIXED IN
CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF RAYMOND
GETS WORKED ON BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE SAN JUANS WITH A FEW
SPOTS SEEING CLOSER TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE, 0.5 TO 1 INCH IS
MORE COMMON. AS FAR AS THIS RAIN GOES, SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE IT CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE
STARTS TO DECREASE. CLOUDS WILL THEN START TO BREAK UP WHICH
WILL THEN ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO FORM. WHILE LAPSE RATES
AREN'T ALL THAT STEEP, ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW SOME
STORMS TO FIRE. COVERAGE DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BUT ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE SOME HEAVY RAIN, MAYBE
SOME SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MAYBE 20 TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.
TONIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE SAN
JUANS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP THIS RAIN GOING THROUGH THURSDAY...POSSIBLY.
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE
FLOODING THAT'S OCCURRING BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS EACH
MODEL RUN KEEPS THIS PRECIP IN JUST ABOUT THE SAME SPOT.
WEDNESDAY, AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW WILL CAUSE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS OUR CWA AND WITH THE TIGHTENING SURFACE
GRADIENT, ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED. HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AND AS THE
CLOSED LOW MAKES A NORTHEAST TURN FROM UTAH INTO WYOMING, YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE, MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
THE LOW FINALLY TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN
DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL SWEEP MOST OF
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST OUT OF THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TO PUMP COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO 7,000 TO 8,000 FEET WITH
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH UINTAS LOOK TO BE THE
WINNER OF THIS EARLY SNOW POSSIBLY SEEING UP TO A FOOT ON THE TALLER
PEAKS, ANT THE PARK MOUNTAINS ABOVE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS COULD SEE
THREE TO SIX INCHES, BUT OTHERWISE THE FLAT TOPS, GRAND MESA AND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL GET DUSTED WITH AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO. IT HAD
TO HAPPEN SOMETIME AND WE ARE IN MID OCTOBER. UNDER THE DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING GRADUAL
HEATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SUB FREEZING MORNING LOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF
THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRAND VALLEY MAY BE SPARED BY A
DEGREE OR TWO, BUT UNDER CLEAR SKIES, IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO NIP
SENSITIVE PLANTS. EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THERE IS A THREAT OF REMNANTS OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH FOR A RINSE AND REPEAT
FORECAST, BUT IT'S REALLY TOO SOON TO MAKE A CALL ON IT. STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST OF THE ONGOING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF I-70. AFTER 00Z
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN UTAH AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AS SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.
SHOWERS MAY LOWER VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS, LEADING TO PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR SOME SITES. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO MATCH UP WITH THE OTHER
FLOODING HIGHLIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SOIL MOISTURE
IN THE WATCH AREA IS VERY HIGH DUE TO ALL OF THE PRECEDING
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS THEREFORE RUNOFF WILL
CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE FOR THE SAME AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS SETS UP OVERHEAD. WHILE FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
NOTHING LIKE WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS STILL REMAIN. PLEASE STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST
FORECAST ESPECIALLY INDIVIDUALS IN THE SAN JUANS, VALLECITO,
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ019-022-023.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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