525
FXUS65 KGJT 150937
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
337 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY GUSTING 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE VALLEYS AND 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10 TO
15 DEGREES TOMORROW.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE LOW TO
THE WEST MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS
KEEPING THE FLOW OFF GULF PULLING MOISTURE UP ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TODAY AS
THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST DRAWING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WEST TO EAST DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
AND SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AS LOW AS 6,000 FEET ACROSS EASTERN UTAH
AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY MORNING.
TODAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH
IN THE VALLEYS AND 40-50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR THE CURRENT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
SCATTERED FARTHER NORTH BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WITH CAPES RUNNING WELL OVER 1,000 ON THE SOUTHERN FACE OF
THE SAN JUANS AND SHEER IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS
THAT SHEER MAY BE TOO STRONG ON THE WESTERN SLOPE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENTS ALOFT, SHEERING OFF THE STORMS TOPS, ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY. TO THE NORTH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
BUT AGAIN TOO MUCH SHEER MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL MOSTLY BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, BUT LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH MOST SHOWERS
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY ABOVE 10,000 FEET. TOMORROW
WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS MOSTLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
THE CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE MOVED WELL NORTH TO THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP THANKS TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION WHILE ALSO DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL
NORMS OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION. IN
FACT, BY FRIDAY MORNING, EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BRING LOW TEMPERATURES FROM 27 TO 32F
ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. DEBATED ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH
FOR FRIDAY MORNING WITH THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE BUT WILL HOLD OFF
TO ALLOW A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THIS STILL HOLDS TRUE.
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
DAY BY DAY. THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
EC HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THIS POINT ONWARDS BUT THE
GENERAL GIST FROM BOTH IS THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. THE NBM, ON THE OTHER HAND, PUTS 20 TO 30%
CHANCES FOR POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
SAME TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY SOLUTION.
SUFFICE TO SAY, WE'LL HAVE A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH SOME
MURKINESS IN THE FORECAST AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD WHILE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND SAN JUANS. THIS SHOWERY
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES, SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST TAF
SITES ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAYBE A QUICK
THUNDERSTORM. KTEX AND KDRO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE
STORMS SO INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THOSE STORMS AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR
MANY OTHER TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERY ACTIVITY. DESPITE
THE PRECIP, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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