017
FXUS65 KGJT 162158
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER.
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MANY VALLEYS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
BEEN IMPACTING OUR REGION IS NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN WYOMING.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA, LEADING TO MUCH COOLER, WELL BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. IN THIS AREA
WHERE MOISTURE LINGERS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION HAS REALLY BEEN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP.
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
REDUCED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS,
INCLUDING VALLEYS WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
DRIER, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE TOMORROW, THE FORECAST LOOKS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE INVADING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY. THE
RELATIVELY ZONAL POLAR JET EBBS NORTHWARD SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE WORKING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS MILD HERE
ON THE WEST SLOPE, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST MONDAY. THIS LITTLE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE COLORADO RIVER ON MONDAY, INCLUDING SOME
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PARK RANGE AND THE FLAT TOPS. COLD AIR LOOKS
PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT, SO I WOULDN'T MAKE ANY BETS ON
SNOW. BUT, SOME LIGHT RAIN IS PROBABLY REALISTIC, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH MONDAY.
THE SHALLOW COLD POOL WON'T REGISTER MUCH OF A DIP SOUTH OF THE
COLORADO RIVER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET TRANSITION DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND MONDAY'S WAVE. MODELS BEGIN TO
SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
A CUTOFF LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE SENDS SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO OUR
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE THE MODEL EVOLUTION.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT LOOKS LIKE MILD FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WORKING
ACROSS WY THIS MORNING WILL DRAG ITS FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST UT
AND NORTHWEST CO THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CEILINGS FOR KVEL AND
KHDN HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. TEMPO SHRA VERBIAGE WAS ADDED
AT KHDN FOR SOME INTERMITTENT RAINFALL EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND SKC CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
ACROSS THE REGION, DECREASING TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ001-002-005-007-008-020>023.
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
UTZ024.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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