944
FXUS65 KGJT 172116
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
316 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING, MOSTLY ABOVE TREELINE.
- DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.
- A WEAK CLIPPER DISTURBANCE BRINGS SOME NON ZERO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY.
- A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM IS COMING INTO THE PICTURE FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE ALONG WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS
HELPING WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SPROUTING ON AREA TERRAIN
FEATURES(PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE COLORADO RIVER). THIS FEATURE HANGS
ON INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. TRACE TO LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE TREELINE IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT. SNOW LEVELS HOVER AROUND
7500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING, BUT DRY LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE GOING TO SOAK UP MOST OF ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HOVER AROUND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CLOUD COVER UP
NORTH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
UPPER YAMPA BASIN.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE SATURDAY,
KEEPING THINGS PRETTY DRY AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY BY NEARLY 5 DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES WILL OFFER UP PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING, AS NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TAKES OVER
IN THE MORE WESTERLY REGIME DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE RETREATING POLAR
JET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, A TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHERN COLORADO TERRAIN. THE TROUGH WILL CARRY A WEAK PUSH OF
MOISTURE, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY ELEVATE PWATS TO 125-150% OF NORMAL IN
OUR CWA DURING THE TROUGH PASSAGE. PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH,
SO IT SEEMS THE SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE GET WILL BE A
PRODUCT OF FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
DRIER AIR RETURNS DURING THE DAY MONDAY, AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO OUR REGION FROM
FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES OUR REGION, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BRING SOMEWHAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. MODEL DISAGREEMENT KEEPS
CONFIDENCE LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS, SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE
FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS THE MODELS BEGIN TO FIND
AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER IS
PRIMARILY OVER KHDN, WHILE ALL OTHER SITES HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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