497
FXUS65 KGJT 181753
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING, MOSTLY ABOVE TREELINE.
- DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.
- A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM IS COMING INTO THE PICTURE FOR MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL CLIP
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY. IT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAINLY ALONG
THE DIVIDE. A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WITH MINOR TO NO IMPACTS. NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL LATER TODAY AND
ALLOWS GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MIDLEVEL FLOW STARTS TO GO
ZONAL TOMORROW CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE 5-10 DEGREES.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS UNTIL
TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, A TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHERN COLORADO TERRAIN. THE TROUGH WILL CARRY A WEAK PUSH OF
MOISTURE, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY ELEVATE PWATS TO 125-150% OF NORMAL IN
OUR CWA DURING THE TROUGH PASSAGE. PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH,
SO IT SEEMS THE SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE GET WILL BE A
PRODUCT OF FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
DRIER AIR RETURNS DURING THE DAY MONDAY, AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO OUR REGION FROM
FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES OUR REGION, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BRING SOMEWHAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. MODEL DISAGREEMENT KEEPS
CONFIDENCE LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS, SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE
FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS THE MODELS BEGIN TO FIND
AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MID
LEVEL CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND GUST AROUND 25 MPH FOR
MOUNTAIN LOCALES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN INFLUENCED WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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