451
FXUS65 KGJT 021136
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
436 AM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL LEAVING QUIET WEATHER AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
- A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WITH LOW-END (<30%) CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
THE LATEST HAND ANALYSIS OF H500 IS SHOWING THE PERSISTENT
UPSTREAM LOW IS STILL IN PLACE WHILE UPSTREAM THE RIDGE HAS
BEGUN TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SW. JUST OFFSHORE IS A
WEAK CIRCULATION THAT WILL GET ABSORBED IN THE FLOW AS A 150+KT
JET RUNNING ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE STRENGTH OF THIS JET IS
RELATED TO THE WARMTH UNDER THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE SPREADING
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK AND COLD BOTTLED UP THE
HIGH LATITUDES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE'LL LIKELY PAY FOR THIS
WARM AND DRY WEATHER DOWN THE LINE BUT FOR NOW SOME PLEASANT
FALL DAYS REMAIN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE IS PUSHED AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOCAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER TONIGHT AS WELL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
WITH THE STRONG ZONAL PATTERN SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS, LOOK FOR
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION AS FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS PASSES THURSDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION LIKELY AND ONLY
ON THE TALLER PEAKS IN THE PARK RANGE. EARLIER RUNS HAD A
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN, THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND DRIES OUT. BEYOND
THURSDAY, MODELS CONCUR WITH A ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
TO THE NORTH FRIDAY BRINGING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION AND LITTLE ELSE WITH A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVING IN
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY NOVEMBER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
COOLING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB
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