299
FXUS65 KGJT 022338
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
438 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK.
- A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WITH LOW-END (<40%) CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 221 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW. A QUICK-HITTING SURGE OF MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE, BUT THE PREEXISTING DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL BE VERY HARD TO OVERRIDE WITH THE LIMITED
FORCING THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PROVIDE. SIMILAR TO THE WAVES OF
MOISTURE WE SAW LAST WEEK, TOMORROW'S WILL PRIMARILY RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR MAKES A RAPID RETURN WITH CLEARER SKIES
FAVORED BY TOMORROW EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND UNUSUALLY MILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL JUST
BRUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY.
THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS, WITH LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW RESULTING IN A TRACE TO A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, A 90-100 KNOT UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
POSSIBLE.
MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN FOR FRIDAY ONWARD. THERE
ARE HINTS IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT PASSING SHORTWAVES
IN THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST, WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A 70% CHANCE OF SEEING
UNDER HALF AN INCH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES BRING ELEVATED PWATS
OF 100-140% OF NORMAL INTO THE REGION STARTING WITH THE THURSDAY
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND FUEL THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER,
RUNNING NEAR TO 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A FEW MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM THROUGH THE REGION WITH BRIEF
CEILINGS ACCOMPANYING THEM. BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
FORECASTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WITH A FEW TERRAIN
INFLUENCED AFTERNOON GUSTS AT THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, INCLUDING
KTEX AND KHDN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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