390
FXUS65 KGJT 041123
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
423 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.
- A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
- LOW END (<40%) CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
ZONAL FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES HOLDING COLD AIR
WELL TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.
WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY AS MIXING WILL BE THE
STRONGEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD A
TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A MORE ROBUST ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE PACNW COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE FLOWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BORDER STATES THROUGH THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF
THE ROCKIES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES IN
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT LOOSES STEAM AS
IT GETS JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE MOISTURE FROM THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON PAPER DUE
TO THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OF 50+ KT WINDS AT H500, BUT IN
REALITY IS MOISTURE STARVED LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATION TO JUST A
DUSTING IN THE EASTERN UINTAS, THE ELKHEADS AND THE FLAT TOPS, AND
UP TO AN INCH ON THE PARK RANGE. OTHERWISE THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY
BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL FIVE TO TEN DEGREES THURSDAY
MOSTLY DUE TO THE CLOUDS LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING, FALL ANOTHER FIVE
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS
FRIDAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY DESCENDING THE
FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN ARCTIC BLAST TO THE
PLAINS STATES. FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, IT WILL SHIFT
THE WINDS ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO PUMP COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE DIURNAL
HEATING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK SHOT OF MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER DUSTING TO THE ELKHEAD MOUNTAINS
TO AN INCH OR TWO ON THE PARK RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY SPREADING OVER THE REGION
MONDAY TO WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, BUT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOOK KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEK
AND KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEYOND MONDAY. THESE SYSTEM CONTINUE
TO NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM EXTENDING THIS DRY
SPELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE 18Z WILL CLEAR OUT BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN BREEZES WITH STRONGER WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB
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