257
FXUS65 KGJT 042013
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
113 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.
- A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
CURRENTLY WE ARE IN ZONAL FLOW WITH A JET BRUSHING US TO OUR NORTH.
SURFACE MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO BECOME BREEZY AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, SO EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PUSHES INTO THE PACNW AND GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER
BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A SLIGHT SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WHICH
END UP BEING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
THURSDAY MORNING, RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE PLAINS WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY TO OUR NORTH, KEEPING FLOW WILL GENERALLY
ZONAL ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. REMNANTS OF AR
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BY THE ZONAL FLOW
AND A MODEST 70-80 KNOT JET ALOFT, WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES JUMPING
INTO THE 120-140% OF NORMAL RANGE. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP
THE SURFACE LEVELS VERY DRY, MEANING THIS MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED
AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ONLY PLACE EXPECTED TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL MANAGE TO EEK OUT A TRACE TO AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SEEING UP TO AN
INCH. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE JET OVERHEAD AND A DECENT COLD FRONT
APPROACHING, WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE ABOVE 10K FEET. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL START OFF
AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, AROUND 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL DROP ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES, WITH HIGHS
NEAR TO AROUND 3 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY NOVEMBER NORMS.
TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SLAMS INTO THE PNW. AS WITH THE THURSDAY
SYSTEM, THIS LATE FRIDAY SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND BE
GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED. THIS MEANS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. INTERESTINGLY, CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACES THE WESTERN
SLOPE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ON THE PARK RANGE. AS A RESULT,
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN DROP
TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 5 DEGREES, RESULTING IN HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND
NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY, HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 957 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
A FEW SITES MAY HAVE AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, OTHERWISE
LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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