207
FXUS65 KGJT 051117
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
417 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AGAIN TOMORROW AS HIGH ONCE
AGAIN PUSH UP TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST
FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS CRASHING ACROSS THE PACNW COAST
THIS MORNING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A ROBUST TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM ZONAL FLOW BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
WITH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WELL TO THE WEST. AS THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH TILTS ONTO THE COAST TODAY A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES. THIS KEEPS THE DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THOUGH ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
HIGHS UP NORTH AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT THROUGH.
THE RIDGE IS PUSHED WELL ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM JET
DRIVEN ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE N.ROCKIES. WE ARE STILL ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BETTER ASCENT BUT WILL GET BRUSHED
WITH SOME OF THE AR MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE BETTER
COLD ADVECTION SEEMS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE MOISTURE IS BEING
FLUSHED OUT LATE TOMORROW. THIS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE EVENT WILL
BE HIGH ELEVATION...LOW SLR SNOW AND AMOUNTS HAVE BASICALLY
STAYED IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE FOR THE PEAKS OF THE ELK HEADS AND
PARK RANGES...WITH AN OR TWO MORE POSSIBLE ON FAVORED ASPECTS.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLAT TOPS DOWN TO THE GORE
RANGE. OVERALL THE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND WE
USHER IN A NORTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT ALOFT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
A 100 KT JET WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE NORTH AS
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CARRIED BY THIS JET, RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY. OUR NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PACNW SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, CLIPPING OUR NORTHWEST PARK RANGE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, HOWEVER NORTHWEST
FAVORED OROGRAPHICS WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE PARK RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ABOVE TIMBERLINE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO
CANADA, SO WE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER VFR
WILL PREVAIL AND AREA TAF SITES UNDER MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
CONDITIONS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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