779
FXUS65 KGJT 052345
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW WILL BRING AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW TO THE PARK RANGE, ALONG WITH VALLEY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR-NORMAL.
- ANOTHER WAVE PASSING ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL BRING ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS ELSEWHERE.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
RIDGING IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON, HELPING TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
WARM. MEANWHILE, A STRONG AR IS CRASHING INTO THE PNW COAST,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM. SOME OF THIS AR MOISTURE IS
BEING PULLED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE INVADING NORTHEAST UTAH, AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, EVENTUALLY BRINGING EVERYONE BROKEN
TO OVERCAST SKIES BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS THIS STORM MOVES INLAND,
THE BEST OF ITS ENERGY WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, A 110-120
KNOT JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY TOMORROW MORNING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET, ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE AND SOME FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS, WILL RESULT IN VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED MOISTURE, LIMITED DYNAMICS,
AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL UNFORTUNATELY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY TOMORROW EVENING, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO DOWN IN
ELEVATION. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS LOW-TO-MID 60S FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS, AND 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE MOUNTAIN TOWNS. IN ADDITION,
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, INCREASING INTO THE 40S UP HIGH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TOMORROW NIGHT'S LOWS TO DROP
NEAR TO BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
ON FRIDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BRINGING MOISTURE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA. THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER LIMITED AND DYNAMIC LIFT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH.
ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS AND THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE PARK
RANGE WILL BE FAVORED FOR THIS EVENT WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE TREELINE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD EXTEND AS FAR
SOUTH AS VAIL PASS, BUT AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS THERE. GUSTY WINDS
THAT ACCOMPANY THE SNOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
EVENT, AGAIN MOSTLY NEAR AND ABOVE TREELINE. THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE VALLEYS. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
CONSISTS OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN AS WELL.
LIGHT SHOWERS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT SOME SITES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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