218
FXUS65 KGJT 061137
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
437 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING, WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH EACH EVENT AND LIMITED IMPACTS.
- DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE WEATHER SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) IS CURRENTLY HITTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WITH IVT VALUES EXCEEDING 750 KG/M/S AT ITS PEAK
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED EASTWARD
BY A 130 KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING
CANADA IN AN ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC STREAM. THIS JET WILL NOSE
INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA AS A 100 KT JET ALOFT, AND BY THE TIME
THIS MOISTURE REACHES US, IT WILL HAVE ALREADY THINNED OUT
CONSIDERABLY. REGARDLESS, WE ARE SEEING INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AS A RESULT AND ARE EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE PARK RANGE
AND LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE FLATTOPS AND ELKHEADS. WESTERLY
OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION AND LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. THE JET WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME DEEPER MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE'VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS WITH WIND GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN WITH THIS PASSING WAVE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BY ABOUT 4 TO
8 DEGREES WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND A
BIT HIGHER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
ANOTHER AR WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING ON THE PACNW COAST ON THE
HEELS OF THE CURRENT ONE, BUT A BIT LESS MOISTURE WITH IVT
VALUES AROUND 500 KG/M/S. AGAIN, THIS MOISTURE WILL THIN OUT
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRAVELS EAST AND ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY HOWEVER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE
DAY DUE TO THIS APPROACHING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH HIGHS NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
ONE LAST LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT
AND MODEST PWATS TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT, A QUICK DOSE OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.
LIMITED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIPPERY SPOTS POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES. NBM SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES SUPPORT 1-3" OF SNOW
OVER 10,000 FEET WITH A TRACE TO 1" DOWN TO AROUND 7,000 FEET.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A SIZABLE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WHICH PUTS US IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME LLWS IS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGH TERRAIN TAF SITES OF KASE, KTEX, KHDN AND
KGUC DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY AT KHDN BUT LOW PROBABILITY
OF ANY SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME SCT THIS EVENING AND CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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