664
FXUS65 KGJT 070541
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1041 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH EACH EVENT AND LIMITED IMPACTS.
- DRY AND ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE CWA FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. SHOWERS DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. SNOW AMOUNTS
COULD REACH 1-2 INCHES MAINLY ABOVE 9KFT. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATER
TONIGHT SO EXPECT LOWS COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER WAVE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW. ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS ROUND LOOK TO
RANGE FROM 1-4 INCHES MAINLY ABOVE 9KFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL BE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WITH HIGHS NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. POP'S ARE NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STEADILY WARM UP. THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SIT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
IF THERE'S ANY ACTIVE WEATHER TO LOOK FORWARD TO, IT ALMOST
CERTAINLY WON'T BE UNTIL THURSDAY AT THE EARLIEST. ENSEMBLES ARE
INCONSISTENT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BY THIS POINT THOUGH, TO SAY
THE LEAST. SO EVEN IF THIS DRY PATTERN IS TO BREAK LATE NEXT WEEK,
WE WON'T KNOW WHEN, WHERE, OR TO WHAT STRENGTH THAT MOISTURE WILL
HIT UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
SOME MID-LEVEL CEILINGS PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BUT
WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN
TOMORROW MORNING BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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