787
FXUS65 KGJT 072029
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
129 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS ON TAP FOR THE NORTHERN DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. 1-4" IS EXPECTED,
MAINLY ABOVE 8,000 FEET. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY BECOME SLIPPERY!
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT,
THE PARK RANGE CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL. MOST
CAM'S ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW, PLACING
MILD ACCUMULATIONS HERE. WHILE SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
HALF A FOOT OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER PEAKS ISN'T OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS 1-4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE PARK RANGE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE ONE
CONSISTENT OUTLIER AMONGST CAM'S WITH MOST RECENT RUNS LAYING
DOWN LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH, IF ANYTHING AT ALL. WHAT IS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN ALL CAM'S THOUGH, INCLUDING THE HRRR, IS THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK, YET NON- NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY NEAR AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, ALSO OVER THE PARK RANGE. IF THERE IS A
CHANCE AT REACHING THE HIGHER END ACCUMULATIONS PRESENT IN SOME
CAM'S, IT MAY HINGE ON HOW MUCH CAPE DOES DEVELOP. THE MOST
RECENT FORECAST UPDATE DID SEE A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS
THOUGH, SO IT'S BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF SNOWFALL. FORECASTED SNOW LEVELS HAVE
FALLEN TO ABOUT 8,000 FEET AND ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY IN
MOUNTAIN PASSES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW MARKING THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER STRETCH OF SEASONABLE TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
ON SUNDAY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
LEAVING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US DRY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL REACH JUST OFF SHORE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE ONCE IT REACHES THE COAST. SOME ACTUALLY CUT OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW AND FORCE IT TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS THE
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF GETTING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
WINDS GUST UP TO 20-25KT AT MOST TERMINALS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ILS CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KASE AND KEGE
LATE TODAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KHDN
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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