344
FXUS65 KGJT 080957
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ABOVE
9,000 FEET. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY BECOME SLIPPERY!
- DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
LIGHT SNOW BEGAN OVER THE PARK RANGE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
EXPECTED BUT NOT MUCH APPEARS TO BE STICKING OR ACCUMULATING AT
THIS TIME. WE ARE SEEING SOME WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
DRAGGING THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE FORCING IS NORTHEAST
OF OUR CWA, BUT THE PARK RANGE IS CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK, SO WE ARE SEEING SOME WEAK
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE ELKHEADS AND PARK RANGE WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, IS
RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCORDING TO CAMS AT STEAMBOAT SKI
AREA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SO WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9,000 FEET
OVER THE PARK RANGE AND TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE FLATTOPS AND VAIL
PASS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY NOON AS THE JET AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND LIFTS OUT OF OUR
CWA. SOME LINGERING LIGHT NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM
THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT WEST AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW STILL OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN COOLER LIKE
YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH AND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE ARE
EXPECTING TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW SUIT.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IN WELL OVER A MONTH. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 938 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. AFTER 18Z SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KHDN THROUGH 12Z, BUT CHANCES OF
TAF SITE IMPACTS FROM SNOW REMAIN LOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOME STRONGER AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE NEAR AND NEAR KDRO.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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