027
FXUS65 KGJT 072314
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
414 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK IN
THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS.
- A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, BUT THE SNOW COVERED
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS WILL SEE COLD INVERSIONS SET UP OVERNIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 259 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2025
THE WEATHER HAS BECOME GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE. INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS
MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF, WEAK PUSH OF
MOISTURE, WITH LITTLE ACCOMPANYING FORCING. AS SUCH, THE ONLY
REALLY SUBSTANTIAL LIFT WILL BE OROGRAPHIC, AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW SUPPORTS THIS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SO, SOME SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE PARK RANGE IN PARTICULAR COULD
SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, AND SOME PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WILL ONLY
SEE A FEW INCHES AT MOST. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE, AND CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE
AFTER NOON. AFTER THAT, QUIET WEATHER RETURNS UNTIL OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHEN A MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REACHES THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS, AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF I-70 COULD ALLOW COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THIS REGION.
HOWEVER, MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE WARMER IN THESE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM BY A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2025
ON TUESDAY THE NOSE OF A STRONG JET STREAK EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER THE REMNANTS OF AN AR THAT MAKES LANDFALL
IN THE PACNW. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WHEN IT
COMES TO HOW SOUTH THE JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL TRACK.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS.
ONE THING THAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS AIR MASS WILL BE WARM
WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7.5-8.5 KFT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENT, WHICH MEANS RAIN OR A MIX FOR A MAJORITY OF THE VALLEYS. THE
PLUME OF MOSITURE ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND DOES NOT MOVE OUT UNTIL
FRIDAY. THE LATEST QPF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OVER AN INCH OF QPF
FOR THE PARK RANGE WITH MUCH LESS VALUES IN SURROUNDING RANGES.
AGAIN THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON HOW THE MOISTURE
PLUME WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD UNDER THE AR
REGIME SO EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, WHICH IN FACT IS CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2025
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE BREAKPOINTS. KASE, KEGE, KRIL,
AND KHDN WILL SEE PERIODS OF CEILINGS BELOW BREAKPOINTS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z, FOR KHDN. LESSER CHANCES EXIST FOR KEGE AND KASE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH DROPS TO
MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS MENTIONED ABOVE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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