179
FXUS65 KGJT 081114
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
414 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL APPEAR LIMITED.
- MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROBABILITY OF 4+ INCHES OF
SNOW IS AROUND 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE PARK
RANGE LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, BUT THE SNOW COVERED
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS WILL SEE COLD INVERSIONS SET UP OVERNIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
N.ROCKIES REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS PROVIDING SOME WEAK AND
BROAD ASCENT WHICH IS ENHANCING NW OROGRAPHICS OVER OR HIGH
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WEBCAMS SHOW AN UPTICK IN THE SNOW OVER
THE PAST HOUR. AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH SHOWER INTENSITY WILL
PEAK AROUND SUNRISE AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARD THE
CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS AS WELL. THE DENDRITIC LAYER LOOKS TO
WASH OUT BEHIND THE WAVE AND MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WANES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL A QUICK HITTER AND JUST A FEW
INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVER THE PARK PEAKS AND AN INCH OR SO DOWN
INTO THE FLAT TOPS/GORE AND VAIL PASS AREA. AS WILL BE THE THEME
MOST OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOSITURE...DRIVEN THROUGH
BY A STRONG JET ALOFT...BRUSHES THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PEAKS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL KEEP A THREAT OF FLURRIES/LIGHT
SHOWERS GOING ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND DO NOT SEE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LIMITED AS WE ARE MOVING INTO A
WARMER AIRMASS. HIGHS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS LOOK TO RUN SOME
5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST THEREBY PUSHING THE JET AND
MOIST PLUME OF THE AR REMNANTS FARTHER NORTH INTO WYOMING AND
MONTANA. GUIDANCE IS REFLECTING THIS TREND WITH THE QPF AND SNOW
TOTALS DROPPING TO HALF OF WHAT WAS FORECAST OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE WARMER MARITIME AIRMASS OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES IN OVER EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. THE RESULTS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS RISE TO 7500 FEET TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER 8500 BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER FIVE DEGREES TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY STAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. AS
FOR THE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS, THE TALLER
PARK MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF ABOUT A FOOT OVER
THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY EVENING, NOT
REALLY ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES, WHILE RABBIT EARS PASS WILL SEE ONE TO
FOUR INCHES, AND THE FLAT TOPS OVER TO VAIL PASS WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE
NUMBERS HAS INCREASED SOME WITH THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS, IT IS STILL QUITE LOW BECAUSE JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN CAN STEER MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS, SO YOU'LL WANT FOLLOW UP ON
THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO SEE HOW IT WILL PLAY
OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH IS CREATING CIGS AT OR NEAR 6KFT AGL AND
NEAR ILS CONDITIONS AT THE KEGE AND KASE. AT KHDN CIGS ARE A BIT
LOWER WITH A THREAT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW...WHERE THE PROBABILITY
OF MVFR IS 30 PERCENT OR LESS. OTHERWISE VFR IS IN CONTROL AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST
SOME HIGH PASSING CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS
WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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