457
FXUS65 KGJT 081725
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1025 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL APPEAR
LIMITED.
- MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROBABILITY OF 4+ INCHES OF
SNOW IS AROUND 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE PARK
RANGE LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, BUT THE SNOW COVERED
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS WILL SEE COLD INVERSIONS SET UP OVERNIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
N.ROCKIES REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS PROVIDING SOME WEAK AND
BROAD ASCENT WHICH IS ENHANCING NW OROGRAPHICS OVER OR HIGH
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WEBCAMS SHOW AN UPTICK IN THE SNOW OVER
THE PAST HOUR. AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH SHOWER INTENSITY WILL
PEAK AROUND SUNRISE AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARD THE
CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS AS WELL. THE DENDRITIC LAYER LOOKS TO
WASH OUT BEHIND THE WAVE AND MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WANES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL A QUICK HITTER AND JUST A FEW
INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVER THE PARK PEAKS AND AN INCH OR SO DOWN
INTO THE FLAT TOPS/GORE AND VAIL PASS AREA. AS WILL BE THE THEME
MOST OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOSITURE...DRIVEN THROUGH
BY A STRONG JET ALOFT...BRUSHES THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PEAKS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL KEEP A THREAT OF FLURRIES/LIGHT
SHOWERS GOING ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND DO NOT SEE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LIMITED AS WE ARE MOVING INTO A
WARMER AIRMASS. HIGHS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS LOOK TO RUN SOME
5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST THEREBY PUSHING
THE JET AND MOIST PLUME OF THE AR REMNANTS FARTHER NORTH INTO
WYOMING AND MONTANA. GUIDANCE IS REFLECTING THIS TREND WITH THE
QPF AND SNOW TOTALS DROPPING TO HALF OF WHAT WAS FORECAST OVER
THE LAST FEW RUNS. TEMPERATURES WARM TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE WARMER MARITIME AIRMASS OFF THE
PACIFIC MOVES IN OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND AS
THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE RESULTS ARE
THAT SNOW LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RISE TO 7500 FEET
TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER 8500 BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WARM ANOTHER FIVE DEGREES TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY STAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORD AND
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR THE STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS, THE TALLER PARK MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF ABOUT A FOOT OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY EVENING, NOT REALLY
ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES, WHILE RABBIT EARS PASS WILL SEE ONE TO
FOUR INCHES, AND THE FLAT TOPS OVER TO VAIL PASS WILL ONLY GET
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THESE NUMBERS HAS INCREASED SOME WITH THE BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS, IT IS STILL QUITE LOW BECAUSE JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN CAN STEER MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS, SO YOU'LL
WANT FOLLOW UP ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO
SEE HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MET FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
AT THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, BUT WE ARE SEEING
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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