504
FXUS65 KGJT 082319
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
419 PM MST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES OF SNOW IS AROUND 60
PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE PARK RANGE LATE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
- A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, BUT THE SNOW COVERED
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS WILL SEE COLD INVERSIONS SET UP OVERNIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MST MON DEC 8 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IS THE THEME THIS WEEK. A
STRONG JET ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT A MODEST PLUME OF MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUR AREA WILL
BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THAT PLUME. THEREFORE AT TIMES IT
MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ONLY BRING PASSING CLOUDS TO
THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE MILD THEREFORE SNOW
LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 7.5-8.5 KFT. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
HAS VARIED EACH FORECAST CYCLE, BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
DOWNWARD AND PERHAPS STEADY AT THIS POINT. THE PARK RANGE LOOKS
TO GET A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH THE ELKHEADS, FLAT TOPS AND
GORE RANGE GETTING MINOR AMOUNTS. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A RANGE OF
SNOWFALL (0-20") FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE PARKS TO THE TOP. THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE PERIODS OF FLURRIES WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
LOOK TO BE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MST MON DEC 8 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DRIVES THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LATE IN THE WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LEADING TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE, IF ANY, CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS AS IS, MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM MST MON DEC 8 2025
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA, WITH SOME LINGERING
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KHDN, ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE CEILINGS ABOVE
BREAKPOINTS AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. KHDN COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW, WHICH MAY DROP CONDITIONS
INTO MVFR/IFR.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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