248
FXUS65 KGJT 102132
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
232 PM MST WED DEC 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 142 PM MST WED DEC 10 2025
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE MOMENT
AND DESPITE THE MODELS INSISTENCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS,
SNOWFALL JUST HASN'T MATERIALIZED AS EXPECTED. A FEW SNOTELS DID
RECEIVE 6...MAYBE 8 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT BY AND LARGE, ONLY A
FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW WERE NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONE. A FAR
CRY FROM WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED EVEN WITH FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS. LOOKS LIKE FLOW WAS JUST A BIT TOO NORTHERLY FOR
THE BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST SUPPORT
STAYING TO OUR NORTH. SPEAKING OF, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, THE JET STREAM WILL SHIFT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO ANY
SUPPORT WE MAY HAVE RECEIVED WILL BE ENDING. AS THIS OCCURS,
SOME SMALL HEIGHT RISES INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
CONTINUING TO BUILD IN KEEPING A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER LOWS FOR THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE WILL
KEEP TEMPS COLD. DID BUMP TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THE
GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY AND THE USUAL COLD SPOTS FOR THE SAN
JUANS. TOMORROW, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE
CLOUDS NOTED ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THEIR
WARM SPELL WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM MST WED DEC 10 2025
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS WITH IT A PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA.
MODELS ARE IN STEADY AGREEMENT WITH A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
ON MONDAY, BUT THIS LOW WON'T BE STORING ANY PROMISING MOISTURE.
THIS MEANS OUR NEXT REAL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DOESN'T ARRIVE
UNTIL TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT ANOTHER STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
PENETRATING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW. EVEN SO,
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET HELD UP ON THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, AND AS A RESULT, CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS AREN'T GIVING US
FAVORABLE ODDS OF FEELING MUCH OF THE EFFECTS OF THIS MOISTURE
PLUME. ENSEMBLE PWAT'S ARE ONLY PEAKING AT 150-175% OF NORMAL DURING
THIS STRETCH, SO OPTIMISM FOR MUCH RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO FALL HERE IS
FAIRLY LOW. GUIDANCE ON THIS MID-WEEK STORM HAS PLENTY OF TIME TO
DEVIATE THOUGH, SO WE WOULDN'T WRITE THIS SYSTEM OFF JUST YET. STAY
TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SPECIFICS WITH THIS POTENTIAL STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST WED DEC 10 2025
LOW CIGS ARE REACHING ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KEGE LATE THIS MORNING,
BUT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD RELIEVE ANY CONCERN OF CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
AND KEEP ALL TERMINALS AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT NO TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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