042
FXUS65 KGJT 112348
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
448 PM MST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST THU DEC 11 2025
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLY AS THE 18Z SOUNDING
PWAT HAS DROPPED TO NEAR-NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. OUR NORTHEASTERN
REGIONS NEAR THE PARK RANGE AND ELKHEADS ARE STILL RECEIVING A
STEADY DOSE OF MORE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH HAS HARDLY BUDGED. THIS IS RESULTING IN
LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDY SKIES THOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL STILL AS WELL. WE SAW SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER GUNNISON RIVER
VALLEY, AND PATCHY FOG COULD AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN THOUGH, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE FOR FOG TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT, SO
SHOULD ANY DEVELOP, LOOK FOR IT TO BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED AND
LESS IMPACTFUL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST THU DEC 11 2025
RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS SETUP ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BE JUST OUR WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY. A WEAK,
DRY SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS WAVE WILL BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT NO
PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS DRY
FORECAST. AN AR EVENT WILL BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE PACNW AND BY
MONDAY MOISTURE FROM THE EVENT WILL FINALLY MAKE IT TO IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA. MOVING FORWARD IN TIME, THE JET STREAM WILL SETUP
ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD. THIS NORTHWARD
SHIFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH AS WELL THOUGH WE
MIGHT SEE AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. FLOW THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY AND KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, 10 TO 15 DEGREES. THIS
TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 439 PM MST THU DEC 11 2025
MOST SITES WILL HAVE SKC OR FEW CLOUD COVERAGE DURING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT PERSISTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
NEAR KVEL, KHDN, KASE, AND KGUC WILL LEAD TO SCT TO BKN SKIES AT
THOSE SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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