521
FXUS65 KGJT 121738
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COLD TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION HASN'T REALLY LEFT, STILL
PARKED TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO, AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST, SO OUR WEATHER IS
MOSTLY INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING IN THE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS ALTHOUGH GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHEST RIDGES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN JET WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE PICTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COLD POOL
BASINS, SUCH AS THE GUNNISON RIVER BASIN, RESULTING IN PATCHY
LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO
SLOWLY ERODE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN WITH CONDITIONS
LESS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG TONIGHT AS THE JET SLOWLY LIFTS FURTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THESE COLD POOL
BASINS, DUE TO INVERSIONS SETTING IN AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED MIXING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DRIVING THE FORECAST.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. UNFORTUNATELY BOTH
MOISTURE AND FORCING LOOK LIMITED, SO THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR
IS A FEW PERIODS OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE PROJECTED SYNOPTIC SETUP. VALLEYS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 AND MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 FAVOR A DRY WEEK
AHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO AND WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED, MAYBE A FEW
OCCURRENCES OF BROKEN. EITHER WAY, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME QUESTION AT KGUC IF LOW STRATUS AND SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG WILL FORM. DIDN'T INCLUDE THAT IN TAF FOR NOW.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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