765
FXUS65 KGJT 130436
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
936 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT AND WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM BAJA NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST PUSHING THE MOIST PLUME OF THE AR WELL TO THE NORTH.
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION AND A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
BY SUNDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WE WILL
SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS,
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DRY WARM WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS.
ONE WOULD THINK TEMPERATURES WOULD AT LEAST WARM ANOTHER FIVE OR
MORE DEGREES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE WITH HEIGHTS
OF 582 TO 584 DECIMETERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, BUT GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE DAYTIME HIGHS RIGHT AROUND THE 15 DEGREES MARK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER, LIKELY DUE TO THE LOW SUN ANGLE
LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
HATE TO SAY IT BUT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GOING FORECAST. RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AS
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO BE MIDWEEK ONWARDS AS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THIS MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH,
UNFORTUNATELY, THOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MAYBE SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OF
NOTE, THE EC IS SHOWING A BIT MORE PRECIP ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. EVEN IF THIS
HAPPENS, NOT MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS OF NOW...A FEW INCHES AT
MOST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 936 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE OUTLIER MAY BE KGUC WHERE A
NIGHTLY LAYER OF GROUND FOG COULD AGAIN DEVELOP AND WANDER IN
AND OUT CREATING MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WENT WITH
PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT WITH 06-10Z THE MOST PROBABLE TIME
PERIOD OF OCCURRENCE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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