820
FXUS65 KGJT 130900
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
200 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- WHILE MOST REMAIN WARM AND DRY, PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS
WEEKEND. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF EARLY-MORNING VALLEY FOG, MOST NOTABLY IN
THE GUNNISON AREA. HOWEVER, INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT COULD
PROVE ENOUGH TO STAVE AWAY THE FOG.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
OVERALL, NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH LIGHT SNOW
FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL UNDERCUT THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST, BRINGING QUITE A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY BUT NOT MUCH ELSE AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS DRY. THIS RIDGE THEN FLATTENS A BIT AND OPENS THE DOOR
TO A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS THAT PUMMEL THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK, SPREADING INLAND INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
WEDNESDAY PRESENTS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY AT PRECIPITATION AS ONE
OF THESE AR LADEN TROUGHS PUSHES ONTO THE PACNW COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH
CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE CO-WY BORDER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WE MAY SEE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPPING THE NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS MID
WEEK SHORTWAVE WHILE THE GFS REMAINS FURTHER NORTH. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE FURTHER NORTH
SOLUTION FAVORED, SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
APPEAR LIGHT WITH MAYBE A COUPLE INCHES AT BEST WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DON'T SEEM TO BE AFFECTED
MUCH BY THESE SHORTWAVES AS THIS MILD, PACIFIC AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, GIVE OR TAKE
A FEW DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS. THE OUTLIER MAY BE KGUC WHERE A NIGHTLY
LAYER OF GROUND FOG COULD AGAIN DEVELOP AND WANDER IN AND OUT
CREATING MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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