526
FXUS65 KGJT 132350
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
450 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- WHILE MOST REMAIN WARM AND DRY, PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MIDWEEK ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOTED.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR RUN OF ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
MAY TEMPER THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND FOG BANKS THAT WE'VE SEEN
IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT, LITTLE ELSE
GOING ON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A BRIEF SHORTWAVE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL NO INDICATION THAT ANY NOTABLE
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THOUGH, SO THE EXPECTATION
REMAINS THAT SOME CLOUDIER SKIES WILL BE ALL TO DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN THIS QUIET PATTERN, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABNORMALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, UPWARDS OF 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
WE'RE STILL KEEPING OUR EYE ON THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND ONWARDS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER BOUT OF PRECIPITATION. CURRENT ENSEMBLE IVT
FORECASTS ARE HINTING AT TWO ROUNDS OF AR MOISTURE TRANSITING
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ONE IN THE MID-WEEK AND ONE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK THOUGH, WE AREN'T FAVORED TO REACH MUCH OF THIS
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AS THE BULK OF THIS STREAM WILL DISSIPATE BY THE
TIME ITS SOUTHWARDS DESCENT REACHES US. THE NBM IS STILL PLACING A
70+% PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT THE CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW INCHES IS LOOKING FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT.
EARLY PROJECTIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK STORM ARE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE
PROMISING (WITH AN EMPHASIS ON "A LITTLE"), BUT WITH A WEEK UNTIL
THIS SYSTEM HITS, MODELS AREN'T IN MUCH AGREEMENT AND GUIDANCE COULD
SHIFT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BOTH
SYSTEMS, AND FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE
COMING DAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, BUT MAY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AT A FEW SITES. GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KGUC
AROUND 06Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page