922
FXUS65 KGJT 141148
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
448 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- WHILE MOST AREAS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY, PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRANSITS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. THIS CLOUD COVER COULD BE TEMPERING OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND FOG FROM DEVELOPING IN COLDER BASINS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE THE
ONLY INDICATOR OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH A LACK OF
FORCING AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY
AND MONDAY CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PROLONGED WARM AND
DRY WEATHER FLATTENS OUT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO A
PATTERN SHIFT OF SORTS. UNFORTUNATELY IT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO SNAP US OUT OF OUR WARM WAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND IS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. IN GENERAL, WE ARE PROJECTED
TO SEE AN UPTICK IN BOTH MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW ARE
ANTICIPATED, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
IS LOW (<20% CHANCE) THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAUSING LOW SNOW RATIOS AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS. NEXT
WEEKEND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS GROWS TO
30-50% CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AS PWATS NEAR
200% OF NORMAL, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL SURELY COMPLICATE THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST. STAY TUNED THIS WEEK AS WE TRACK THE EVOLUTION OF
THESE WEAKER WEATHER SYSTEMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CLEAR BY DAYBREAK. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE GUNNISON BASIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING KGUC AT
TIMES BUT OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT,
TERRIAN DRIVEN WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE SPREADING EAST
OVERNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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